Source: Sharecast
The Chicago Business Barometer, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), increased for the second consecutive month, rising 6.0 points to 45.5, its highest level since September.
While the PMI remains firmly below the neutral 50-point level which separates growth from contraction, analysts were expecting only a slight uptick to 40.6 from January's print of 39.5.
Four of the five sub-components – production, new orders, supplier deliveries and order backlogs – all improved month-on-month, while employment worsened.
However, one major warning sign came in the form of prices, with the prices paid sub-index jumping 16.9 points – the largest monthly increase in nearly 70 years – taking the measure to its highest since August 2022.
A quarter of respondents to the survey said they expected to keep prices steady in 2025, while 75% predicted an increase, with 25% of those forecasting price hikes of 4% and above.