Source: Sharecast
Canaccord Genuity said that despite a "solid production performance" from Hochschild's Inmaculada mine in Q125, its San Jose asset missed on grades and its Mara Rosa site missed on throughput. Despite the lower-than-expected production levels, Canaccord only made minor changes to its production profile in 2025 and now expects to see "a much stronger production half" in H2 than H1.
Notably, the Canadian bank said gold sales and gold realised prices also missed CGe in Q1, leading it to lower FY25 sales estimates by 3% and underlying earnings forecasts by 6% as a direct result. However, it have left its 2026 production and EBITDA unchanged.
"We have lowered our target price on HOC by 1-2% to 365p, from 370p previously. We are using an equal-weighted shorter-term EV/EBITDA multiple (4.0x) and a longer-term NAV (at 1.0x), both in line with other mid-cap gold peers like Pan African," said Canaccord, which reiterated its 'buy' rating on the stock.
"However, we now see the HOC stock as having more 2H25 earnings and deleveraging momentum than 1H25"
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com