Source: Sharecast
As far as the Fed is concerned, Michael Hewson at MCH Market Insights said that even with the absence of critical labour market and prices data there appears to be a consensus for another 25 basis points rate cut.
"There is plenty of evidence that the jobs market is undergoing a modest slowdown, although there is some concern over the impact that continued threats to increase tariffs are having when it comes to companies looking to maintain their competitiveness by raising prices," he said.
"While the government shutdown is impacting the release schedules, as well as the data collection capability of the BLS, there are plenty of other avenues we can use to gauge the strength or otherwise of the US economy. Growth for Q3 is already estimated to be trending at just below 4% annualised, while the recent US CPI report showed that price pressures continued to be sticky, with core CPI at 3.1%, while headline CPI rose to 2.9% in September from 2.7% in August.
"This alone is likely to keep Fed officials cautious especially since they have access to the latest ADP, as well as ISM reports."
The Fed will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday 29 October.
The ECB, meanwhile, is expected to leave rates on hold when it makes its announcement on Thursday.
Rabobank said: "There’s no reason to expect a policy change at next week’s ECB meeting, nor do we expect President Lagarde to give any new guidance ahead of a more extensive policy discussion in December, when more new data is available.
"But additional easing requires a materialisation of significant downside risk, and we maintain that the ECB’s cutting cycle is effectively done."
On the corporate front, Shell will be among the highlights when it releases third-quarter numbers on Thursday.
Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "Shell heads into its third quarter results after a tough first half, with second quarter underlying net profit down 32%, to $4.3 billion, due to lower commodity prices, weak trading, and chemical plant disruptions.
"However, third-quarter guidance suggests a rebound, particularly in its Integrated Gas division, where trading and optimisation results are expected to be ‘significantly higher’ than second quarter.
"LNG liquefaction volumes are also projected to rise 5-10%, to 7.0-7.4 million tonnes. In the downstream segment, refining margins are forecast to jump to $11.6 per barrel, supported by high refinery utilisation of 94-98%."
Britzman said market consensus points to third-quarter revenue of around $73.5bn. Share buybacks remain in focus, he said, with Shell maintaining $3.5bn in the second quarter despite earnings pressure.
"However, with Brent crude falling and a persistent global surplus averaging around 1.9 million barrels per day, the sustainability of Shell’s capital returns may come into question if oil prices remain weak."
Third-quarter results from HSBC are due on Tuesday, while Next is scheduled to update on Wednesday.
Across the pond, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Alphabet are all slated to report quarterly earnings.
Monday October 27
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Bridgepoint Group (Reg S)
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Durable Goods Orders (US) (19:00)
IFO Business Climate (GER) (14:30)
IFO Current Assessment (GER) (14:30)
IFO Expectations (GER) (14:30)
M3 Money Supply (EU) (15:30)
Q3
Greatland Resouces Limited (DI)
GMS
Distil
FINALS
First Tin, Rosslyn Data Technologies
ANNUAL REPORT
Kromek Group
AGMS
City of London Investment Group, Kromek Group, Litigation Capital Management Limited (DI), Oil & Gas Development Company Ltd GDR (Reg S)
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Rosslyn Data Technologies
Tuesday October 28
INTERIMS
Airtel Africa
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Confidence (US) (20:30)
GFK Consumer Confidence (GER) (13:30)
House Price Index (US) (19:30)
Q3
HSBC Holdings
GMS
Ten Lifestyle Group
FINALS
Ultimate Products
EGMS
Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.
AGMS
Aberforth Geared Value & Income Trust, Aberforth Geared Value & Income Trust, Achilles Investment Company Limited Npv, Brooks Macdonald Group, Galileo Resources, Seen, Seen
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Auction Technology Group , Evoke (DI)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
BRC Shop Price Index (06:31)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
European Opportunities Trust
Wednesday October 29
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Panther Securities
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Crude Oil Inventories (US) (21:00)
MBA Mortgage Applications (US) (17:30)
Pending Homes Sales (US) (20:30)
Q3
Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings, Banco Santander S.A., GSK, Smurfit Westrock (DI)
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Panther Securities
AGMS
Hargreaves Services, Springfield Properties
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Next, Wetherspoon (J.D.)
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Consumer Credit (16:00)
M4 Money Supply (16:00)
Mortgage Approvals (16:00)
Thursday October 30
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Avation, Bank of Ireland Group (CDI), Centrica, Phoenix Group Holdings
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Aeorema Communications, Balfour Beatty, Banco Santander S.A., Bloomsbury Publishing, Burford Capital NPV (DI), Hilton Food Group, JD Sports Fashion, LLoyds Banking Group 9.25% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, LLoyds Banking Group 9.75% Non-Cum Irredeemable Pref Shares, Whitbread
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
Abrdn DIversified Income And Growth
QUARTERLY EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Brunner Inv Trust, JPMorgan Claverhouse Inv Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Business Climate Indicator (EU) (16:30)
Consumer Confidence (EU) (16:30)
Continuing Claims (US) (19:00)
Industrial Confidence (EU) (16:30)
Initial Jobless Claims (US) (19:00)
Services Sentiment (EU) (16:30)
Unemployment Rate (EU) (16:30)
Unemployment Rate (GER) (15:25)
Q3
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (CDI), Shell , Standard Chartered
GMS
Anglesey Mining, Premier African Minerals Ltd (DI), Union Jack Oil
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Life Settlement Assets
AGMS
Filtronic, Scancell Holdings
TRADING ANNOUNCEMENTS
Gem Diamonds Ltd. (DI), Haleon , PPHE Hotel Group Ltd, Wellnex Life Limited Npv (DI)
FINAL EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Abrdn UK Smaller Companies Growth Trust, Dunelm Group, Fiske, Gattaca, Kier Group, Mcbride, NWF Group, PZ Cussons, Renishaw, Sylvania Platinum Ltd (DI), Thorpe (F.W.), Wilmington
Friday October 31
INTERIM DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Andrews Sykes Group, ASA International Group , Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust, Fintel, Hunting, Ingenta, Mortgage Advice Bureau (Holdings) , Personal Group Holdings, Petershill Partners , Unite Group, Wynnstay Group
INTERIM EX-DIVIDEND DATE
Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd.
QUARTERLY PAYMENT DATE
CT Private Equity Trust, Value and Indexed Property Income Trust
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Chicago PMI (US) (20:15)
Import Price Index (GER) (13:30)
Personal Consumption Expenditures (US) (19:00)
Personal Income (US) (19:00)
Personal Spending (US) (19:00)
Retail Sales (GER) (13:30)
SPECIAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
BioPharma Credit , FIH Group , Gore Street Energy Storage Fund
EGMS
ZCCM Investments Holdings 'B' Shares
AGMS
Crimson Tide, Indus Gas Ltd., Technologies New Energy
UK ECONOMIC ANNOUNCEMENTS
Nationwide House Price Index (13:30)
FINAL DIVIDEND PAYMENT DATE
Arcontech Group, Chemring 7% Cumulative Preference Shares 1, FIH Group , Latham (James) 8% Cumulative Preference 1, Mercia Asset Management