Source: Sharecast
The bank said it expects a strong message on free cash flow at the upcoming full-year results on 26 February.
JPM said share price volatility has been rather pronounced throughout 2025, but from here it sees several drivers for greater operational stability.
It highlighted clarity on Kroger, with the partnership confirmed to continue with six sites, as well as a strengthened balance sheet following the repayment of the 2025/2026 maturities and the receipt of the £260m ($350m) termination fee from Kroger this month.
JPM also pointed to a focus on cost optimisation and margin expansion, improving free cash flow conversion with management confirming in its recent meeting with chairman Adam Warby that it would be FCF breakeven on a full-year basis by 2027.
In addition, the bank said the recently announced termination of exclusivity in most markets provides Ocado with increased optionality, particularly in the US.
"We argue our Nov-27 290p price target (unchanged) reflects an implied reduction of an additional 37 modules (i.e. beyond Kroger’s announced site closures) which we view as highly unlikely at this point."
JPM - which rates Ocado at ‘overweight’ - noted positive feedback from both AEON and Coles, two other large clients of Ocado, during a recent investor call.
At 0817 GMT, Ocado shares were up 6.1% at 251p.