Source: Sharecast
In Q4, Atalaya mined 3.9m tonnes of ore, lighter than Berenberg's 4.3mt forecast, although it did come in ahead on mill processing – delivering 4.1mt of ore versus its 3.6mt forecast. Copper grade of 0.33% was slightly below Berenberg's 0.36% estimate, which was greatly offset by improved recoveries of roughly 83.9%, resulting in a record annual mill throughput of 16.6mt.
Copper production of approximately 11,500 tonnes in Q4 brought full-year production to 51,100 tonnes in FY25, beating Berenberg's 50,700 tonnes estimate and coming in at the top end of Atalaya's FY25 guidance range of 49,000-52,000 tonnes. Q4 sales of 11,800 tonnes were also ahead of its 11,100 tonnes forecast, as Atalaya continued to benefit from rising copper prices.
The German bank, which has a 'buy' rating on the stock, also noted that Atalaya had provided FY26 guidance for its Proyecto Riotinto project in Spain, with the group expecting to mine 15.5m-16m tonnes of ore, while waste mined at Cerro Colorado was pegged to be 38m-44m tonnes, ore processed was expected to come in at 15.5m-16m tonnes, and copper grade was seen at 0.38-0.41%. Overall copper production was also expected to be 50,000-54,000 tonnes, with H226 production forecast to be roughly 10% higher than H126.
"We update our model for the Q4 results and tweak our estimates to reflect the FY26 guidance. We value Atalaya using a blended 1.33x NAV and 9x NTM EBITDA (previously 8x EV/EBITDA) to reflect premium valuations being afforded to copper names," said Berenberg.
Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com