OPEC cuts oil demand forecast for 2026 as Middle East conflict continues.


The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has cut its oil demand growth projection this year but raised its outlook for next year as it continues to assess the impact of a months-long near closure of the key Strait of Hormuz.

Source: Sharecast

In its monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC predicted that oil demand would grow by just 1.17m barrels of a day worldwide in 2026, down from an earlier forecast of 1.38m barrels.

Next year's growth projection, however, has been raised to 1.54m barrels, from 1.34m barrels previously.

The intergovernmental cartel said its global economic growth forecasts for 2026 were unchanged from last year, predicting that worldwide GDP would expand 3.1% this year, picking up to 3.2% in 2027.

However, national projections for growth in the eurozone and Japan were revised lower, to 1.1% and 0.8% respectively, while China is set to grow 4.6%, more than previously expected.

"The global economic growth momentum has remained relatively resilient in recent months. The global economic growth continues to be supported by global investment in AI, the boost to international trade, as well as fiscal measures in the key economies," OPEC said.

"The US, China, India and other Asian economies have been the most supportive drivers of growth since the turn of the year."

The organisation called the current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East – along with its related trade challenges – a "temporary" event which the global economy should be resilient enough to absorb.

OPEC crude production averaged 18.98m barrels a day in April, down 1.73m barrels from the month before, while non-OPEC output was more or less flat at 14.21m barrels. However, April's data includes a contribution from the UAE, which abruptly quit the OPEC group at the start of May.

Compare our accounts

If you're looking to grow your money over the longer term (5+ years), we have a range of investment choices to help.

Halifax is not responsible for the content and accuracy of the Markets News articles. We may not share the views of the author. Understand the risks, please remember the value of your investment can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount you invest. We don't provide advice so if you are in any doubt about buying and selling shares or making your own investment decisions we recommend you seek advice from a suitably qualified Financial Advisor. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.