Wednesday preview: More US bank earnings due.


Wednesday will bring more US bank earnings, with quarterly results from Bank of America and Morgan Stanley due, while BlackRock is also slated to report.

Bank of America

Source: Sharecast

In the UK, a first-quarter assets under management statement from Ashmore and full-year results from Softcat are scheduled for release. Investors will also eye a Q3 trading update from recruiter Robert Walters.

On the macroeconomic calendar, the Chinese consumer price index and trade figures for September will be released. Danske Bank said exports are expected to show continued strength.

"External shipments have been a strong growth engine rising around 25% y/y in value terms for some months boosted by exports of chips, electronics and autos," it said. "Price increases on chips and commodity prices have lifted export prices to 15% y/y so in real terms export growth is lower around 10% y/y.

"PPI inflation for September is set to rise further to above 4% from 3.8% y/y in August also lifted by price increases on microchips and commodities. CPI inflation is expected to rise from 0.8% y/y to 1.0% y/y but mainly due to the higher input cost pressures, not stronger consumer demand."

Across the pond, the consumer price index for September will be in the spotlight. Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said the US CPI reading will be the main release for the week, with the market expecting headline inflation to rise to 3.7% from 3.4%, driven by rising energy costs. The core rate of CPI is expected to rise a notch to 2.5% from 2.4% in August.

"This is a key economic print before the FOMC meeting later this month," Brooks said. "This reading will tell us if inflation is cooling, like the August PCE print suggested, or if it is becoming a problem again. Hotter inflation will keep interest rates higher for longer, and it will also weigh on bonds and push yields higher. Higher bond yields hurt corporate profits and may put pressure on equities later this week.

"As the Middle East war enters its 8th month, can stocks continue to rally if inflation is rising? This is the question that could keep stock market investors on edge this week.

"From a trading perspective, precious metals will be in focus during the CPI release. Gold and silver rallied on Friday, and gold managed to eke out a 1.1% gain last week. A weaker than expected reading for inflation could support the gold price through lower yields. This could help extend the rally in precious metals. However, a stronger reading could heap the pressure on gold and silver and it will be interesting to see if the silver price can hold above the critical $60 per ounce level."

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