Source: Sharecast
According to Chinese customs data, exports spiked 35.2% in October, down only marginally on September’s 36.3% surge and easily beating forecasts for growth of 33.5%. Driving demand was the global artificial intelligence boom, with exports of semiconductors soaring 137.1% and automatic data processing machine rocketing 114.7%. That helped offset a marked slowdown in growth in auto exports, to 37.6% from 62% in September.
Imports rose 41.6% on the back of higher energy prices and AI-related shipments into the country. That was above analyst forecasts, for growth closer to 32%.
That meant the trade surplus fell to $105.3bn from September's $133.5bn. But it remained above $1trn for the year to date, at $1.04trn. China's surplus reached a record $1.2trn for all of 2025.
Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China, at ING, said: "We remain on pace for China’s surplus to reach a new record high by year-end. Strong external demand has been a major driver of China’s economic growth in 2026, helping offset soft domestic demand as consumption and investment disappoint.
"We may see trade growth moderate next year, given the base effect. But AI-related trade is expected to remain strong in the months ahead, despite recent equity market volatility."
The hiked trade surplus could fuel further trade tensions with the European Union and the US, however, over concerns that low-cost imports are undermining domestic industries. The EU has already imposed tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and a quota on hybrid car imports.
Lynn noted: "China’s trade outlook faces some uncertainty: the trade truce with the US expires in January unless a deal is reached to extend. The next key window to watch on this front might be Donald Trump’s visit to Shenzhen for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit next week.
"There’s also some uncertainty on how trade with Europe might develop. Countries are debating on quotes on products such as chemicals, plastics and industrial machinery, among others."