London close: FTSE slides on oil slick, BoE boosts pound.


London's FTSE 100 started November on the back foot due to heavy falls in oil stocks and a surging pound, but solid updates from the likes of BT, Smith & Nephew and Just Eat set a more upbeat tone as the Bank of England sat on its hands.

Source: Sharecast

After starting lower, the UK benchmark index spent half the day in positive territory before running out of puff to finish down just 13 points or 0.2% at 7,114.66.

The pound surged 1.9% against the dollar to 1.3010 and was 0.9% higher versus the euro at 1.1389 on the back of Brexit reports and comments from the BoE after policymaker voted unanimously to leave interest rates unchanged at 0.75%.

"Any future increases in bank rate are likely to be at a gradual pace and to a limited extent," the Bank's monetary policy committee said in a summary. But the Bank also warned that a no-deal Brexit could force interest rates higher and cut its UK growth forecast for this year to 1.3% from 1.4% and its forecast for next year to 1.7% from 1.8%.

However, a big boost was given to sterling as the Bank signalled its openness to raising rates in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

"While economists typically call for a rate cut in times of economic strife, the potential decline in the pound means that the Bank has to choose between boosting growth with a rate cut, or easing inflation with a hike," said Joshua Mahony, market analyst at IG.

"It seems Carney and co are willing to stick to their core mandate of price stability, hoping that a rate hike would ease cost pressures, thus avoiding a sharp deterioration in real wages."

This saw the pound add to solid gains it racked up earlier on the back of a report suggesting that a tentative Brexit deal has been struck for UK financial services. According to The Times, the UK has agreed with Brussels to give financial services continued access to European markets after Brexit. Citing government sources, it said a tentative agreement has been reached on all aspects of a future partnership on services, along with the exchange of data.

Some cold water was later poured on the report from EU officials, pointing out that the equivalence regime is a unilateral deal.

“Misleading press articles today on Brexit & financial services,” Michel Barnier, the bloc's lead Brexit negotiator, tweeted, adding that the EU "may grant and withdraw equivalence in some financial services autonomously".

Earlier, the latest survey from Nationwide showed annual house price growth in the UK slowed to 1.6% in October from 2% in September, missing expectations for a 1.9% increase and marking the slowest rate since May 2013.

Nor was manufacturing data was anything to write home about, with the Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers' index falling to 51.1 this month - a 27-month low - from a downwardly-revised 53.6 in September, with new orders and employment down for the first time since mid-2016. Analysts had been expecting a reading of 53.0.

The drop was attributed in part to rising global trade tensions and Brexit uncertainties.

On the corporate front, a 3%-plus fall in the price of Brent crude to $72.69 per barrel put a slick under the feet of the Footsie, sending all oil and gas related companies into the red. Producers BP, Shell, Premier Oil and Tullow were among the fallers, along with engineers such as Wood Group, Hunting and Petrofac.

Oil prices fell after Opec oil output was revealed to have risen to the highest since 2016, up 430,000 barrels per day to 33.33m a day in October. A Bloomberg survey of officials, analysts and shipping data revealed that Libya pumped a five-year high of 1.22m barrels per day while a record 10.68m a day gushed in Saudi oilfields. This more than offset a cut in Iranian shipments due to US sanctions that are set to begin on 4 November.

Shell also put out third-quarter results showing profits up 37% to a four-year high, thanks to rising oil prices, but this was still short of analyst forecasts. Profits increased to $5.6bn from $4.1bn the year before, versus expectations of $5.8bn.

"Unlike BP, which delivered better than expected numbers earlier this week, earnings are slightly short of consensus expectations. There might also be some disappointment at the lack of an increase in the dividend despite cash flow from operations of nearly $15bn," said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Other fallers included Ashmore, Hilton Food, Morgan Advanced Materials, Senior, Softcat and Unilever as their stock went ex-dividend.

On the upside, BT Group rallied strongly after saying its profits increased 24% in the first half of its trading year as costs fell as 2,000 jobs were cut as part of its massive restructuring programme. The company also said it expects EBITDA to be in the upper half of its £7.3bn to £7.4bn range for the year. On the FTSE 250, TalkTalk gained on read-across from BT.

Medical equipment maker Smith & Nephew racked up sharp gains as it posted a 3% rise in third-quarter revenue thanks to a strong performance in the US and emerging markets.

BHP Billiton advanced after unveiling plans to return $10.4bn to shareholders and Just Eat reversed earlier losses to trade higher as it served up a 41% jump in third-quarter revenue and said full-year revenue would be towards the top end of its £740m to £770m range.

Spire Healthcare was the top gainer on the 250 after a report on the Betaville website that private equity firm Advent International has quietly build up a 3.5% stake in the company and Croda rose after posting 4.5% growth in third-quarter core business sales.

On the broker note front, HSBC was upgraded to 'hold' at DZ Bank, while Synthomer was cut to 'underweight' at JPMorgan. Berenberg initiated coverage of Cairn Energy and Nostrum Oil & Gas at 'buy', while Premier Oil and Tullow were started at 'hold'.

Just Group was a big riser as Barclays reiterated its 'overnight' rating, highlighting what it sees as "significant upside" to a price target of 148p.

Market Movers

FTSE 100 (UKX) 7,114.66 -0.19%
FTSE 250 (MCX) 19,171.93 1.34%
techMARK (TASX) 3,326.40 0.78%

FTSE 100 - Risers

BT Group (BT.A) 261.25p 8.61%
Smith & Nephew (SN.) 1,357.00p 6.56%
Just Eat (JE.) 646.00p 6.32%
Melrose Industries (MRO) 177.00p 4.95%
Fresnillo (FRES) 888.60p 4.71%
Whitbread (WTB) 4,601.00p 4.57%
Antofagasta (ANTO) 819.00p 4.36%
ITV (ITV) 153.95p 3.36%
Associated British Foods (ABF) 2,466.00p 3.35%
easyJet (EZJ) 1,238.50p 3.21%

FTSE 100 - Fallers

Wood Group (John) (WG.) 681.00p -4.65%
BP (BP.) 541.50p -4.55%
Smurfit Kappa Group (SKG) 2,468.00p -3.82%
Royal Dutch Shell 'B' (RDSB) 2,475.00p -3.51%
Royal Dutch Shell 'A' (RDSA) 2,424.50p -3.04%
AstraZeneca (AZN) 5,827.00p -2.72%
Smith (DS) (SMDS) 382.90p -2.55%
Rentokil Initial (RTO) 308.80p -2.34%
Bunzl (BNZL) 2,263.00p -2.08%
NMC Health (NMC) 3,468.00p -1.81%

FTSE 250 - Risers

Spire Healthcare Group (SPI) 132.00p 12.44%
Just Group (JUST) 98.95p 11.49%
Thomas Cook Group (TCG) 49.72p 10.20%
Ferrexpo (FXPO) 225.90p 8.14%
Fisher (James) & Sons (FSJ) 1,824.00p 7.67%
Computacenter (CCC) 1,178.00p 7.29%
IntegraFin Holding (IHP) 289.00p 7.04%
Ascential (ASCL) 403.00p 6.95%
Amigo Holdings (AMGO) 235.00p 6.82%
Crest Nicholson Holdings (CRST) 363.20p 6.57%

FTSE 250 - Fallers

Dairy Crest Group (DCG) 447.20p -6.48%
Wood Group (John) (WG.) 681.00p -4.65%
Tullow Oil (TLW) 216.70p -4.03%
Premier Oil (PMO) 103.90p -3.80%
Synthomer (SYNT) 432.20p -2.66%
Centamin (DI) (CEY) 96.88p -2.63%
Hunting (HTG) 657.50p -2.59%
Meggitt (MGGT) 517.60p -2.30%
Plus500 Ltd (DI) (PLUS) 1,323.00p -2.29%
Petrofac Ltd. (PFC) 567.00p -1.94%

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